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NHL Saves of the Week, 3/24/08

I’m rolling this out in three parts today as I write it. The first — or third if you happen to be visiting Monday! — part is the league standings, awards and add a few comments. I fully acknowledge this is an exercise in futility. In the second part, I shall get slightly more in depth when looking at the A.L. Central. And in the final — or first! — part I will look deeper at the Tigers. Enjoy!

The Tigers are not a perfect ballclub. This comes as no surprise to anyone who follows the club. Really it comes as little surprise to the national “experts” of the game, either. And so maybe for that reason there are two camps when it comes to the upcoming Tigers season. The first sees the Tigers as a 100+ win team that will score 1,000 runs. Sorry, but I’m here to tell you they are not that ballclub. And the second, maybe in reaction to the first, sees the Tigers as a fragile team where the pitchers hold their arms together with duct tape and the aging hitters have silly putty in their knees. No team like that can truly be contenders. Brother, I’m here to tell you, they are not that ballclub, either.

The Tigers are a very good ballclub that will win a lot of games and maybe go to the World Series if all the chips stack up right. And if they don’t? They’re still a pretty good team, but maybe they’ll fall a bit short. So what? You can repeat that claim for every contending team in baseball.

The Tigers’ lineup will hit often, score often and probably steal more than its fair share of games at Comerica Park due to hitting last. There’s almost no place for an opposing pitcher to catch his breath, and they’re going to wear some starts out pretty good. And if their hitting gets contagious, there’s going to be some very lopsided numbers on the scoreboard. There’s really no weakness. The lineup is mostly right-handers, but I’ve shown in the past their numbers against right-handed pitchers don’t suffer. It’s a lineup of professional batters who can pick up whatever the pitcher is tossing. And holy cow, the day-to-day lineup when Curtis Granderson plays center field is better than anyone’s in baseball, far as I can tell. But score 1,000 runs? No. “Murderers Row”? I’d rather we not go there, thanks. The Tigers lineup is good, there’s no reason to exaggerate it.

The starting pitching, we can start to worry about. I think that’s fair. I think Justin Verlander can repeat his first two seasons. I don’t think we need to worry about any injuries for the sake of worrying. Injuries can be inherent or random. If he gets hurt, it’s going to be a random one. Jeremy Bonderman, I think there’s some worry over with his elbow problem last season and love of sliders. But he rested it. He workd out. He didn’t have structural damage. I think Nate Robertson is a decent “plug-and-play” pitcher. You know what you’ll get. Not a frontline guy, but a valuable pitcher. Hopefully they can score some runs for him. Kenny Rogers is a wildcard at this point, I should think, as is Dontrelle Willis. Starting pitching could be a strength, or it could be a wildcard. Even if more than one starter struggles, that’s still going to be a statement most teams in the MLB can make.

As for the bullpen, well, yeah. It isn’t pretty. Who says it has to be? The purpose of the bullpen is not to lose games. Sure, some teams are lucky and have bullpens that can win games, and sadly, the Tigers aren’t one of those teams. Possibly a year of Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney pitching back-to-back innings spoiled Tigers fans and the experts. Maybe it was a year of some immaculate meltdowns in 2007 that started the theme. (In case anyone forgot, Fernando Rodney was one of those guys…) In any case, you might need to keep a roster nearby to know who is pitching in the seventh or eighth inning, but I really don’t think the Tigers are going to play a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 games to get the blood pressure excited. The bullpen is obviously the weak point, but something had to be.

Conclusion

So I add it all up. I weigh an injury here or there. I think about the schedule. And what do I come up with? I don’t have a clue what’s going to happen! But you didn’t read this section first for my honesty, you wanted a number. So I’ll say the Tigers are a 91 win team. Maybe even 92. They are better than last year. They might not face all the major injuries they did last year. They should be OK. They can win the World Series. But so much can happen in the next six months, I’m not even going to get near that prediction.

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I’m rolling this out in three parts today as I write it. The first — or third if you happen to be visiting Monday! — part is the league standings, awards and add a few comments. I fully acknowledge this is an exercise in futility. In the second part, I shall get slightly more in depth when looking at the A.L. Central. And in the final — or first! — part I will look deeper at the Tigers. Enjoy!

American League Central projection:

Cleveland: 91-61 (DIV)
Detroit: 91-61 (WC)
Chicago (A): 79-83
K.C.: 76-86
Minnesota: 72-90

The A.L. Central has an interesting dynamic to it this year. At the top, you have a pair of strong rivals in Cleveland and Detroit battling not only for division supremacy, but also for the best record in the A.L. While the salaries don’t quite reach the Yankees-Red Sox level and the fans don’t quite have the vitriol for the opposing team as they might on the East Coast, this is developing into a pretty good rivalry. Then you have Chicago, confused whether to actually try to content, or whether to try to rebuild. You have Kansas City, trying to climb the mountain of rebuilding, but sort of poorly at the moment. And you have the Twins who didn’t knock the whole major league team apart, but mixed some things up and got not a whole lot in return. so they’re just starting to rebuild.

Here’s a bit more background on the teams:

Cleveland

They’ll have a successful season because they’re a good team with no big holes. On the other hand, they’re also a team that won 96 games in 2007 (a jump of 18 from a year earlier) and made almost no changes, as if expecting to repeat the performance just by showing up. Frankly, they weren’t a 76-win team in 2006, they were better. And they probably weren’t a 96-win team in 2007, they got some fortunate performances. And while I do this Travis Hafner should add some improvement to the offense, I wonder who’s going to drop off. Ryan Garko maybe?

But the real question in Cleveland is can the pitching keep it up? C.C. Sabathia should remain in the Cy Young hunt. I just have to side with watching Fausto Carmona as an injury risk. Past that, they pretty have an average rotation. I’m just not believing you can claim it’s better than Detroit’s. But the bullpen, yeah, that’s clearly better than Detroit’s.

In my standings, I gave Cleveland the same number of wins as the Tigers, could I wouldn’t be surprised to see them fall back to, say 86 wins. I see their ceiling around 93 wins if everything goes right. But everything never goes right in baseball.

Chicago

It’s followed by a team in flux in the Chicago White Sox. They want to compete with the top two teams. They really, really want to. But they seem to lack the organizational commitment to invest all-in. For the second straight offseason they made a couple head-scratcher trades again, ones that didn’t necessarily make the team any stronger or weaker: just sorta shook things up a bit. The read head-scratcher was for the pitching-thin White Sox to trade Jon Garland for Orlando Cabrera when they already had a shortstop. Yeah, he had a losing record in 2007, but otherwise his stats were pretty close to the 18-win 2006 season (and actually, his ERA+ improved). How do the Sox expect to win like that?

They’ll win enough to stay above the cellar, not enough to fight for the division. I’ve got their win range in the 77-84 area.

Kansas City

I like the youth: 3B Alex Gordon will bounce back and 1B Billy Butler can just flat-out hit. Some experienced players in Mark Teahen and Jose Guillen will also help the offense. And I like starting pitchers Gil Meche, Brian Bannister and Zach Greinke. (Where’s Luke Hochevar!?) I really like that a team that has no need to worry about winning has such a good closer in Joakim Soria. So I guess there’s some potential in Kansas City. But the team is not that exciting and nothing really to get worked up over at this point. Maybe in another year or two.

They don’t make any major steps forward this year. They could finish anywhere from 70 to 80 wins in my mind.

Minnesota

The Twins had a pretty busy offseason. They lost Torii Hunter to free agency, sent Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa for troubled outfielder Delmon Young (who also happened to be runner up in the AL Rookie the the Year voting). We’ll see how the troublemaker does in Minnesota, but I don’t know why a change of locale to the northern state should change things any for him. And finally, they sent Johan Santana out of the American League. (Finally!)  After fielding what I thought were good offers from Boston and the Yankees, the Twins traded Santana to the Mets for Carlos Gomez and Tommy John Surgery repaired pitcher Philip Humber.

The one bright point I see if Francisco Liriano coming back to the mound after his own TJS kept him away from the game for the entire 2007 season. He’ll begin the year in the minors, however. And they’d better work to protect that elbow.  So I’m believing the Twins just took several steps back all over the place and are kinda shallow right now. Did they step all the way down the ladder from Central winner to Central loser in two short seasons? We’ll see.

Right now, I don’t like them to do much, especially if catcher Joe Mauer is hurt again. I see about 70-75 wins.

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I’m rolling this out in three parts today as I write it. The first — or third if you happen to be visiting Monday! — part is the league standings, awards and add a few comments. I fully acknowledge this is an exercise in futility. In the second part, I shall get slightly more in depth when looking at the A.L. Central. And in the final — or first! — part I will look deeper at the Tigers. Enjoy!
N.L East

New York (N): 91-61 (DIV)
Philladelphia : 89-64* (WC)
Atlanta: 87-65
Washington: 65-87
Florida: 52-110

NL Central

Chicago (N): 89-73 (DIV)
Milwaukee: 85-77
St. Louis: 79-83
Cincinnati: 71-91
Houston: 68-74
Pittsburgh: 63-99

N.L. West

Arizona: 93-69 (DIV)
L.A. (N): 87-75*
Colorado: 87-75
San Diego: 81-81
San Fran: 67-95

A.L. East

Boston Red Sox: 94-58 (DIV)
New York (A): 87-65
Toronto: 82-80
Tampa Bay: 81-81
Baltimore: 70-92

A.L. Central

Cleveland: 91-61 (DIV)
Detroit: 91-61 (WC)
Chicago (A): 79-83
K.C.: 76-86
Minnesota: 72-90

A.L. West

Oakland: 84-78 (DIV)
L.A. (A): 83-79
Seattle: 79-83
Texas: 71-911

* Includes playoff game

N.L. playoffs

Arizona def. Philly, 3-0; Cubs def. Mets, 3-2
Arizona def. Cubs, 4-2

A.L. playoffs

Cleveland def. Oakland, 3-1; Detroit def. Boston,
Detroit def. Cleveland, 3-2

World Series

Detroit def. D-Backs, 4-2

Explanations: Everytime you predict the standings, you’re coming up with some sorta storyline. I have no idea if my standings add up. I doubt it. But the AL is stronger than the NL. The Mets are overrated. I like Philly as a complete team that could actually win the division. Milwaukee’s good in the Central, but lacks pitching. The Cubs are a complete team. The West will be close… for second place, but the Diamondbacks run away.

In the A.L., I see no reason to doubt Boston, but I think optimism in New York is based on the fact the Yankees make the playoffs every year. That has to end eventually, right? IN The Central, I think the Indians and Tigers pummel each other, costing both a 95 win season. In the West, the Angels have a injured, shallow rotation, and made some questionable offseason moves. The Athletics shouldn’t have traded away Dan Haren or Nick Swisher this year, because I think those guys would have guaranteed a division title. As is, in the West, I see a shootout.

Who knows what can happen in the playoffs, but I feel pretty good about those picks. A Tigers-Cubs World Series like Sports Illustrated predicted would be cool but I don’t see it.

Individual awards:

N.L. Cy Young: Brandon Webb (Arizona)
A.L. Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia (Cleveland)

N.L. MVP: Ryan Howard (Philly)
A.L. MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)

N.L. Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome (Cubs)
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Daric Barton (Oakland)

NL Manager of the Year: Bob Melvin (Arizona)
AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi (Yankees)

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I wrote something for opening day for my newspaper. Forgive mention of the Brewers, but we’re a split loyalties peninsula and I like to be inclusive!

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The Nashville Predators (39-31-8) are fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference and hope to earn two points against the Detroit Red Wings (51-20-7) in the last game between the two teams this regular season.

Mikael Samuelsson will not play Sunday because of a groin injury. Tomas Holmstrom is still out with his injury. Dominik Hasek has recovered from the flu bug so he will start today.

The game starts at 3pm and will be shown on FSN Detroit. Go Wings!

Although the Cleveland Cavaliers clinched a spot in the playoffs Saturday night, LeBron James wasn’t in the mood to celebrate. In fact, the superstar acknowledged being concerned because his team is banged up with just nine games left in the regular season. Richard Hamilton returned to Detroit’s lineup and scored 14 points, leading the Pistons to an 85-71 win over the injury-riddled Cavs.

Richard Hamilton returned to the Detroit Pistons’ lineup Saturday night after missing three games with a sore hip. Hamilton started against Cleveland, which had Ben Wallace and Daniel Gibson back. Gibson had been out since Feb. 20 with a sprained left ankle, while Wallace sat out two games with back spasms.

The Tigers announced their 25-man roster for Opening Day and Clete Thomas, who little more than two weeks ago had been sent to minor league camp and whose name few people recognize, may the cut. He’s probably only going to be with the team until Curtis Granderson’s broken middle finger/hand heals. But it should be a thrilling time and you just never know what will happen.

As for the rest of the roster, there are no surprises.

Catcher

• Pudge Rodriguez

Infield

• Carlos Guillen (1st)
• Placido Polanco (2nd)
• Miguel Cabrera (3rd)
• Edgar Renteria (shortstop)

Outfield

• Jacque Jones (LF)
• Brandon Inge (CF)
• Magglio Ordonz (RF)

Designated hitter

• Gary Sheffield

Bench

• Ramon Santiago (utility infield)
• Ryan Raburn (utility everywhere)
• Marcus Thames (LF platoon/1st base)
• Clete Thomas (OF)

Starting pitchers

• Justin Verlander (RHP)
• Kenny Rogers (LHP)
• Jeremy Bonderman (RHP
• Nate Robertson (LHP)
• Dontrelle Willis (LHP)

Relief pitchers

• Todd Jones (RH closer)
• Denny Bautista (RH setup)
• Yorman Bazardo (RH)
• Aqualino Lopez (RH)
• Jason Grilli (RH)
• Zach Miner (RH)
• Bobby Seay (LH)

Disabled list

• Curtis Granderson (CF, 2 to 4 weeks)
• Vance Wilson (backup C, ?? weeks)
• Fernando Rodney (RH setup, ?? weeks)
• Joel Zumaya (RH setup, 12-16 weeks?)

Should have gotten American Express

• Francisco Cruceta (RHP, stuck in the Dominacin with visa problems)

And there you have it: your Detroit Tigers for March 31, 2008. One way or the other, those relief pitchers are going to make headlines and SportsCenter highlights pretty quick.

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• March 27, 2008 — Clouting Clete?
• March 27, 2008 — A glance at Clete Thomas
• March 24, 2008 — Cotntinued roster speculation: Inge as backup catcher
• March 16, 2008 — Roster almost settled, but Leyland tells no secrets